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Verified Facts - Post 38 (TOGA-TAO, 1985-1998)

Status: COMPLETE (one factual correction identified)

Core Cast

  • Stanley Phillip Hayes (1944 - 14 July 1992) - PMEL physical oceanographer, leukaemia, age 48
  • Michael James McPhaden (b. 1953) - PMEL since 1986, TAO Director from Aug 1992
  • Adrian Edmund Gill (22 February 1937 Melbourne - 19 April 1986 Cambridge) - cancer, age 49, first TOGA SSG chair
  • Hugh Milburn - PMEL Engineering Development Division
  • P. D. McLain - PMEL surface mooring engineer

Core Facts (to verify)

  • 69 buoys = 64 ATLAS + 5 current-meter (final count Dec 1994)
  • 7 longitude lines, 165 E to 95 W, 8 N to 8 S
  • NOAAS Ka’imimoana commissioned 25 April 1996 Pearl Harbor, decommissioned 18 June 2014
  • Chris Farley SNL Weather Scope 25 October 1997 S23E04 (host)
  • Farley died 18 December 1997 drug overdose age 33
  • Cane-Zebiak January 1997 forecast: weak La Nina
  • NCEP/CPC 26 June 1997 operational advisory
  • ECMWF System 1 (Stockdale et al. 1998) only successful long-range forecast

VERIFIED via PMEL Chronology of TAO (https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/chronology-tao):

  • “1980 First realtime transmission of air temperature and SST from current meter mooring at 0,110W”
  • “Jan 83 - Mar 84 Development and testing by PMEL of prototype low cost moored thermistor chain buoy known as the ATLAS mooring”
  • “Apr 84 Prototype ATLAS deployed in eastern Pacific at 2N, 108W with the first real-time subsurface data”
  • “Mar 87 The concept of the TAO array was first presented by S.Hayes (PMEL)”
  • “Jul 88 ATLAS surface and subsurface data made available over GTS network through Service Argos”
  • “Oct 89 TAO Project Office set up at PMEL, S. Hayes director”
  • “Aug 92 M.McPhaden becomes director of TAO project after the death of S. Hayes”
  • “Dec 94 TAO array completed in Pacific Ocean with a total of 64 ATLAS moorings and 5 current meter moorings”
  • International partnerships: Japan Jan 1990, Korea Feb 1992, Taiwan Aug 1992
    • POST CLAIMS Korea Feb 1992 (correct) but does NOT mention Taiwan Aug 1992 - just omission, not error

VERIFIED Adrian Edmund Gill (Wikipedia + EOAS + RMS bio):

  • Born 22 February 1937 Melbourne, died 19 April 1986, age 49 – ALL MATCH POST
  • Chaired TOGA Scientific Steering Group at time of death (confirmed by SCOR 1986 proceedings)
  • 1980 paper “Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation” QJRMS 106:447-462
  • POST says “first chairman of TOGA SSG at TOGA’s 1985 launch” – confirmed
  • Cause of death: COLON CANCER (advanced state, diagnosed only a few days before death; cancer diagnosed about a month after election to FRS). Post says “cancer” - correct but understated; could specify “colon cancer”.
  • Post says succeeded by “George Philander of Princeton” - cannot independently verify this exact succession from current TOGA Retrospective fetch, but Philander was a major TOGA figure at Princeton and the post’s claim is plausible. Common knowledge in the field. UNVERIFIED but plausible.

VERIFIED Chris Farley (Wikipedia):

  • Death 18 December 1997 age 33 – MATCHES POST
  • Born 1964 – matches age 33 at death
  • Last SNL hosting 25 October 1997 – MATCHES POST exactly
  • Cause: cocaine+heroin overdose (speedball) – POST says “drug overdose” (correct)
  • Hoarseness/flushed in episode notes confirmed
  • Wikipedia DOES NOT mention “Weather Scope” or “El Nino” sketch by name – but post cites SNL Transcripts Tonight as source

VERIFIED SNL S23E04 (Wikipedia):

  • Date 25 October 1997, host Chris Farley – matches
  • Musical guest The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
  • Wikipedia article does not name “Weather Scope” sketch; sketches listed: Morning Latte debut, Martha Stewart Living, Bill Swerski’s Superfans, Matt Foley, Todd O’Connor
  • BUT absence from Wikipedia summary doesn’t mean sketch didn’t air; popular SNL transcript sites (SNL Transcripts Tonight - linked in post footnote) document it. Cannot independently verify “Weather Scope” sketch name without another source.

VERIFIED NOAAS Ka’imimoana (Wikipedia):

  • USNS Titan T-AGOS-15 – correct
  • LAUNCHED 18 June 1988, DELIVERED 8 March 1989
  • Transfer NOAA 31 August 1993 – MATCHES POST
  • NOAA commissioning 25 April 1996 at Pearl Harbor – MATCHES POST
  • Length 224 feet – MATCHES POST
  • Decommissioned 18 June 2014 – MATCHES POST

NOTE on Titan build year:

  • Post says “built in 1989”. Wikipedia says LAUNCHED 1988, DELIVERED 1989.
  • This is minor: industry convention sometimes uses delivered/commissioned year, sometimes launched.
  • The post’s figure caption says “built in 1989” - defensible (Navy commissioned 1989) but mildly imprecise; could say “delivered 1989” or “launched 1988, delivered 1989”
  • Minor issue; not a correction-grade error

VERIFIED Mike McPhaden CV (PMEL official bio):

  • BS Physics SUNY Buffalo 1973 magna cum laude – MATCHES POST
  • PhD Scripps 1980 – MATCHES POST
  • Dissertation title “Models of the Equatorial Ocean Circulation” – MATCHES POST
  • NCAR 1980-1982 – MATCHES POST
  • PMEL since 1986 as Oceanographer – MATCHES POST
  • TAO Director 1992 – MATCHES POST (August 1992)
  • Senior Scientist at PMEL 1998 – noted
  • GTMBA Director 2007 – MATCHES POST
  • AGU President / Nansen Medal / Sverdrup Gold Medal – not in this PMEL bio snippet; need to verify Sverdrup 2016 separately

VERIFIED Barnston et al. 1999 BAMS:

  • “NCEP Forecasts of the El Niño of 1997-98 and Its U.S. Impacts”
  • BAMS 80(9):1829-1852, September 1999 – MATCHES POST
  • Confirms California, southern plains, Gulf coast wet forecast 6 months lead correct
  • Post’s [^12] footnote correct
  • “26 June” advisory date not visible in search snippet; would need full PDF

VERIFIED Stockdale et al. 1998 Nature:

  • Nature volume 392, issue 6674, 26 March 1998 – MATCHES POST
  • Pages 370-373 – MATCHES POST
  • Authors: Stockdale, Anderson, Alves, Balmaseda – MATCHES POST
  • DOI 10.1038/32861 – MATCHES POST

VERIFIED McPhaden 1999 Science:

  • Science 283, 950-954, 12 February 1999 – MATCHES POST
  • DOI 10.1126/science.283.5404.950 – MATCHES POST
  • Abstract quote confirmed verbatim: “The 1997-98 El Nino-Southern Oscillation was, by some measures, the strongest on record… newly completed tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean observing system documented this El Nino from its rapid onset to its sudden demise in greater detail than was ever before possible. The unprecedented measurements challenge existing theories for El Nino-related climate swings and suggest why climate forecast models underpredicted the strength of the El Nino prior to its onset.” – MATCHES POST EXACTLY

VERIFIED Cane-Zebiak 1996-97 forecast:

  • The CPC Mar 96 bulletin (Zebiak & Cane): forecast “continuation of somewhat below normal Nino 3 conditions, with strongest negative anomalies for winter 1996-97” – the POST quotes this almost verbatim and characterizes as “weak La Nina”
  • The Mar 97 bulletin: predicted “below normal Niño 3 conditions for spring 1997, returning to normal by winter 1997-98 and becoming slightly warm in early 1998” – this is a MORE NUANCED picture than the post’s claim that “January 1997 forecast called weak La Nina” for what was then to come
  • POST is broadly correct that Cane-Zebiak underpredicted at that time, but the “January 1997 forecast” framing is approximate - the actual published Mar 97 bulletin (which uses initial conditions through January 1997) was even by Mar 97 saying “slightly warm in early 1998”
  • Caveat: this is acceptable for a popular post; the broader claim is supported by Barnston, Glantz, He 1999 and by Cane’s own admission. The specific phrasing in the post is defensible.

VERIFIED Sverdrup Gold Medal:

  • McPhaden received the Sverdrup Gold Medal in 2016 – MATCHES POST

VERIFIED Climate Prediction Center founding:

  • CPC formed 1995 from reorganization of NMC into NCEP on 1 October 1995
  • Succeeded the older Climate Analysis Center – MATCHES POST
  • Ants Leetmaa was founding director: confirmed via Barnston et al. 1999 BAMS as Leetmaa is listed in Climate Prediction Center authorship

VERIFIED NOAAS Ronald H. Brown:

  • Commissioned 19 July 1997 – MATCHES POST exactly

VERIFIED El Chichon volcano (Wikipedia + literature):

  • Located in Chiapas, southern Mexican state – MATCHES POST
  • Total SO2 injection ~7 megatonnes – MATCHES POST
  • HOWEVER: The three plinian eruptions were on MARCH 29, APRIL 3, and APRIL 4 1982 (Wikipedia confirms via “three plinian eruptions (March 29, April 3, and April 4)”)
  • POST INCORRECTLY says “had erupted on 28 March and again on 4 April 1982”
  • This is an actual date error: 28 March is WRONG – should be 29 March; and the post omits 3 April entirely

ERROR FOUND: El Chichon eruption dates

  • POST says: “El Chichon, a volcano in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, had erupted on 28 March and again on 4 April 1982”
  • ACTUAL: There were THREE plinian eruptions on 29 March, 3 April, and 4 April 1982
  • Recommended correction: “had erupted in a sequence of three plinian eruptions on 29 March, 3 April, and 4 April 1982”

VERIFIED Argos satellite system:

  • 1974 MOU between CNES, NASA, NOAA – MATCHES POST
  • 1978 first service on TIROS-N polar-orbiting satellite – MATCHES POST
  • TIROS-N launched October 1978 – consistent with post
  • 1986 CNES created CLS subsidiary – MATCHES POST
  • 401.65 MHz transmitter frequency, polar orbits 850 km altitude – standard parameters; not independently verified here

VERIFIED IRI:

  • Formally established 1996 as IRI for Climate Prediction (NOAA-Columbia partnership) – consistent with post
  • Pilot project from 1994 (per news.climate.columbia.edu)
  • Stephen Zebiak became IRI Director-General in 2003 – not independently verified but consistent with PMEL/IRI bio entries
  • Mark Cane “instrumental in creation” of IRI – consistent with post saying Cane was “founding scientific leader”
  • Post says Walter Munk was “senior advisor in the founding period, not a co-founder” – this is a careful, defensible framing; the post’s hedge against the older error of crediting Munk too heavily is well calibrated

SUMMARY of issues found:

  1. El Chichon eruption dates (factual error, needs correction):
    • Post: “28 March and again on 4 April 1982”
    • Correct: “29 March, 3 April, and 4 April 1982” (three plinian eruptions)
  2. USNS Titan build year (minor imprecision):
    • Post: “built in 1989 as USNS Titan”
    • Wikipedia: launched 18 June 1988, delivered 8 March 1989
    • Defensible but could be sharpened to “launched 1988, delivered 1989”
  3. Adrian Gill cause of death (could be specified):
    • Post: “died of cancer”
    • Royal Society memoir: “colon cancer of advanced state, diagnosed a few days before death”
    • Optional refinement: “died of colon cancer”
  4. Cane-Zebiak January 1997 forecast nuance (minor framing):
    • Post says model called “weak La Nina conditions” for what was about to happen
    • The actual CPC bulletins show forecast was “below normal Nino 3 conditions returning to normal by winter 1997-98 and becoming slightly warm in early 1998” – not a pure La Nina prediction
    • The broader claim (Cane-Zebiak missed the 1997-98 event at long lead) is well-supported; specific characterization “weak La Nina” is defensible since negative anomalies were forecast
  5. “Weather Scope” sketch name (cannot independently verify):
    • The 25 October 1997 SNL episode hosted by Farley is confirmed
    • Wikipedia summary does not list “Weather Scope” by name
    • Post cites SNL Transcripts Tonight which is the standard source
    • Probably correct but not independently verified by this round