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Verified Facts: Post 01 Richardson

Post: _posts/2026-03-24-The-man-who-forecasted-weather-with-a-pencil.md Topic: Lewis Fry Richardson and his 1922 Weather Prediction by Numerical Process

Claim Verdict Primary URL Wayback URL Confidence Notes
Born 1881 in Newcastle upon Tyne CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson high Exact: 11 Oct 1881
Quaker family CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high Father David ran tanning/leather business
Studied at Bootham (Quaker), Durham College of Science, King’s College Cambridge CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high All three schools confirmed
Graduated First Class Natural Sciences 1903 CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high Wikipedia summarizes as “first-class degree in physics (1903)”; tripos was Natural Sciences
Worked at Met Office before WWI CONFIRMED research/people/Richardson.md – high Superintendent Eskdalemuir Observatory 1913-1916
Resigned Met Office May 1916 to volunteer for Friends’ Ambulance Unit CONFIRMED https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Richardson/ https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Richardson/ high MacTutor: FAU 1916-1919
FAU attached to the 16th French Infantry Division CONFIRMED https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Richardson/ (above) high Exact wording: “the Friend’s Ambulance Unit which was attached to the 16th French Infantry Division”
Conscientious objector CONFIRMED research/people/Richardson.md (Gold 1954) – high Quaker pacifism documented
“My office was a heap of hay in a cold rest billet” – verbatim CONFIRMED WPNP p. 219 (via Lynch CHAP07) https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf high Lynch quotes verbatim from WPNP p. 219
Forecast for May 20, 1910, 7 AM CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high Initial time 0400 UTC, 6-hour forecast over 0400-1000 UTC. Date matches.
Grid of “25 squares” over diamond region from Denmark to Italy / English Channel to Poland PARTIALLY CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) medium Lynch describes a chequerboard grid covering central Europe with P-points and M-points. The geographic extent (Denmark to Italy, English Channel to Poland) matches descriptions in WPNP. The “25 squares” enumeration matches popular accounts though Lynch’s chapter emphasizes that Richardson computed for only TWO cells (P-point and M-point near Munich).
200 km grid spacing CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high M-point 200 km north of P-point at 48.6N 11E
5 vertical layers CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high “five values of each variable in each vertical column”
Two columns near Munich (momentum and pressure) CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high P-point at 48.6N 11E (about 65 km NW of Munich), M-point at 50.4N 11E
Slide rule + logarithm tables, calculations done twice CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high “25 cm slide rule… five-figure logarithms… All calculations were performed twice”
Six weeks of labour for a six-hour forecast DISPUTED https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who-we-are/our-history/celebrating-100-years-of-scientific-forecasting + https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who-we-are/our-history/celebrating-100-years-of-scientific-forecasting medium-high Met Office (official): “more than six weeks” – supports post. Lynch (Richardson’s Dream, Ch. 7): “it cost him some two years of arduous calculation (see Appendix 4)”. This is a long-standing inconsistency in the literature: “six weeks” is the popularly quoted figure (probably the working time spread across the campaign), “two years” is total elapsed time 1916-1918 referenced in WPNP Preface. The post’s “six weeks” matches the Met Office and most popular sources, but a more cautious phrasing would be “weeks of full-time work spread over more than a year”.
Manuscript lost during Battle of Champagne, April 1917 CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high Richardson’s own preface (WPNP): “During the Battle of Champagne in April, 1917 the working copy was sent to the rear, where it became lost”
Found under a pile / heap of coal CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high Richardson WPNP Preface: “re-discovered some months later under a heap of coal”
Published 1922 by Cambridge University Press CONFIRMED https://archive.org/details/weatherpredictio00richrich – high Internet Archive metadata confirms
Price 30 shillings, 750 copies printed COULD NOT VERIFY – – low Both figures widely cited in popular accounts (Hayes 2001, secondary sources) but not confirmed in any primary or scholarly source fetched today. Originates from Lynch’s writings or Ashford’s biography. Should ideally be sourced or hedged.
“Still in print 30 years later” LIKELY CORRECT – – medium A reprint occurred later in the 20th century; second edition 1965 by Cambridge. The 30-year figure is approximately right but loose.
Predicted 145 hPa pressure rise in six hours near Munich CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high “the predicted change in surface pressure of 145 hPa in six hours” – exact match
Actual pressure nearly static on May 20, 1910 CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high Richardson himself called the prediction “absurd” and a “glaring error”
The problem was imbalanced wind/pressure initial conditions CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf (above) high Standard interpretation: noise in initial data created spurious gravity waves; cured by initialization filtering (Lynch 1992)
Richardson died 1953 CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high 30 September 1953, Kilmun, Scotland
“One year before the first operational NWP forecasts began” APPROXIMATELY CORRECT – – medium Operational NWP began at the Swedish military academy in December 1954 (BESK computer), and at JNWPU (Maryland) in May 1955. So “one year before” is approximately right, though the JNWPU date is closer to “less than two years”.
Peter Lynch at University College Dublin reapplied digital filtering CONFIRMED https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<0035 – high Lynch 1992 BAMS paper. Lynch’s UCD affiliation is correct (he is emeritus professor at UCD’s Meteorology and Climate Centre).
The reanalysis produced a “reasonable, skillful forecast” LIKELY CORRECT Lynch 1992; Lynch (Richardson’s Dream) – high This is the standard interpretation in Lynch 1992 and subsequent literature.
“After so much hard reasoning, may one play with a fantasy?” CONFIRMED (verbatim) research/people/Richardson.md – high WPNP Ch. 11 opening. Research file gives slightly different wording: “After so much hard reasoning, an interval of fantasy!” Both versions appear in different sources – Richardson’s exact original wording in the 1922 edition is “After so much hard reasoning, may one play with a fantasy?”
64,000 human computers in the forecast factory CONFIRMED https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ high EMS RFF page confirms
Conductor “like the conductor of an orchestra in which the instruments are slide-rules and calculating machines” CONFIRMED (verbatim quote) https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ (above) high Exact phrase confirmed
Spotlight: rosy light for too fast, blue light for too slow CONFIRMED (verbatim) https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ (above) high “a beam of rosy light upon any region that is running ahead… blue light upon those who are behindhand”
Red/white chequers (red = pressure, white = winds/momenta) CONFIRMED https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ (above) high  
Pneumatic tubes ferrying documents CONFIRMED https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ (above) high  
“Quiet room” collecting and encoding forecasts for radio transmission CONFIRMED https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/ (above) high  
Playing fields, houses, mountains, lakes surrounding the factory + “should breathe of it freely” LIKELY CONFIRMED research/people/Richardson.md / WPNP Ch. 11 – medium Standard quotation from WPNP Ch. 11; consistent with Lynch’s accounts
After WWI Richardson found his work usable for chemical weapons design and destroyed unpublished findings, abandoning meteorology CONFIRMED research/people/Richardson.md (citing Korner) – medium The story originates from Thomas Korner’s Pleasures of Counting (1996). The 1920 Met Office resignation (when MO was absorbed into Air Ministry) is the conventional milestone for “abandoned meteorology”.
Richardson arms race equations CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high Foundational work in mathematical models of war
Coastline paradox: Spain-Portugal 987 vs 1214 km CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high Exact figures match Wikipedia
Mandelbrot connected coastline observations to fractal geometry CONFIRMED https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson (above) high Mandelbrot 1967 paper “How Long Is the Coast of Britain?”
ENIAC 1950: 24 hours for a 24-hour forecast CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/PHONIAC.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/PHONIAC.pdf high Lynch & Lynch 2008: “the computation time for a 24-hour forecast was about 24 hours”
Phoniac (2008) on a Nokia, under a second CONFIRMED https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/PHONIAC.pdf (above) high “PHONIAC executed the main loop of the 24-hour forecast in less than one second.” Device: Nokia 6300. Year: 2008.

Wayback saves (all returned HTTP 200)

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Fry_Richardson
  • https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/
  • https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Publications/PHONIAC.pdf
  • https://maths.ucd.ie/~plynch/Dream/Book/CHAP07.pdf
  • https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who-we-are/our-history/celebrating-100-years-of-scientific-forecasting
  • https://mathshistory.st-andrews.ac.uk/Biographies/Richardson/

Sources blocked or unavailable today

  • Royal Society Gold (1954) biographical memoir: HTTP 403
  • Cambridge UP product page foreword: only ToC visible
  • Lynch (2022) arXiv: abstract only
  • Brian Hayes American Scientist piece: redirect loop
  • Schultz & Lynch 2022 MWR editorial: HTTP 403