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Post 48 — “The Hemisphere That Caught Up” — Biographical Research

Subject: history of satellite RADIANCE data assimilation in NWP (the observation side of the forecast revolution). Remit of THIS file: the PEOPLE. Birth/death dates & places, career arc, key papers with years, usable quotes.

STATUS: IN PROGRESS

Cross-link note (already-published posts):

  • Jean-Noel Thepaut and Anthony Hollingsworth appear in Post 47 (4D-Var at ECMWF).
  • Andrew Lorenc appears in Post 44 (optimal interpolation).
  • Eugenia Kalnay appears in Post 46 (reanalysis).

Lawrence (Larry) McMillin

  • NOAA/NESDIS scientist, Camp Springs, MD. Pioneer of satellite retrieval and the SPLIT-WINDOW technique.
  • Split-window (SW) approach first proposed by McMillin (1975) for sea-surface-temperature retrievals. McMillin & D. S. Crosby (1984): theory/validation of multiple-window SST technique.
  • Early VTPR-era work: NOAA Technical Report NESS 65 (McMillin et al.) on satellite infrared soundings from NOAA spacecraft — VTPR retrievals. Published Monthly Weather Review 1978; TOVS retrieval algorithm developer.
  • Canonical split-window citation (well-known in the field; NOT personally fetched — verify before printing): McMillin, L. M., 1975: “Estimation of sea surface temperatures from two infrared window measurements with different absorption,” J. Geophys. Res. 80:5113-5117.
  • McMillin & Crosby 1984 (multiple-window SST); McMillin & Dean; McMillin was on the NOAA/NESS team producing operational VTPR soundings (NOAA-2 onward) and TIROS-N/TOVS retrieval algorithms (1979).
  • FLAG / NOT VERIFIED: birth/death dates. The June 2024 Tezak obituary (Joliet, IL; Caterpillar assembler b.1946) is a DIFFERENT Lawrence J. McMillin, NOT the NOAA scientist. Do not use it. A separate “Larry McMillin (1935-2024), Kinston NC” obituary also surfaced but is NOT confirmed to be the NOAA scientist either — DO NOT USE without confirmation. Larry M. McMillin’s exact birth/death dates remain UNVERIFIED.

John R. Eyre

  • Met Office (Exeter) and formerly ECMWF. Pioneer of DIRECT RADIANCE ASSIMILATION via 1D-Var.
  • Key paper: Eyre, J. R., 1989: “Inversion of cloudy satellite sounding radiances by nonlinear optimal estimation” (QJRMS). The 1D-Var retrieval scheme (Eyre 1989) used NWP short-range forecasts as background — the intermediate step towards direct radiance assimilation.
  • Wrote major two-part history: Eyre et al. (2020) and Eyre 2022 “Assimilation of satellite data in numerical weather prediction. Part II: Recent years” (QJRMS, doi:10.1002/qj.4228). Part I also exists. These are prime narrative sources.
  • Eyre, English & Forsythe 2020 (Atmos context).

Erik Andersson

  • ECMWF data-assimilation scientist; central to 3D-Var and 4D-Var implementation and to TOVS/radiance assimilation.
  • Andersson et al. 1991 (with A. Hollingsworth, G. Kelly, P. Lönnberg, J. Pailleux & Z. Zhang) — biases in retrieved data / OI+TOVS.
  • Andersson, Pailleux, Thépaut, Eyre, McNally, Kelly & others 1994 — “Use of cloud-cleared radiances in three/four-dimensional variational assimilation” (QJRMS) — landmark direct-radiance-in-variational paper.
  • Andersson & Thépaut 2008: “ECMWF’s 4D-Var data assimilation system – the genesis and ten years in operations” (ECMWF Newsletter).
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living person; ECMWF staff profile returned 401).

Anthony (Tony) McNally

Jean-Noel Thepaut (cross-link Post 47)

  • Already introduced Post 47 (4D-Var at ECMWF). Cross-link.
  • On the key direct-radiance-in-variational papers: Andersson, Pailleux, Thépaut, Eyre, McNally, Kelly et al. 1994; Thépaut, Courtier, Belaud & Lemaître 1996.

Graeme Kelly

  • ECMWF satellite/data-assimilation scientist (Australian). Co-author Andersson et al. 1991 and 1994 (cloud-cleared radiances in variational assimilation). Long-time ECMWF satellite section.
  • FLAG: birth date not found.

Jean Pailleux

  • Météo-France / ECMWF data-assimilation scientist. Co-author Andersson et al. 1991, 1994. Pailleux et al. 2014 (history of variational DA, cited in Fifty Years doc). Early contributor to variational assimilation technique development.
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living, French).

Roger Saunders

  • Met Office (Bracknell then Exeter). Head of Satellite Section at ECMWF 1995-1999, responsible for new satellite data types in the NWP model; took scientific lead on ongoing development of RTTOV fast radiative transfer model.
  • RTTOV = development of a fast RT model for TOVS originally developed at ECMWF in the early 1990s. Now maintained under EUMETSAT NWP SAF (Satellite Application Facility). Author of successive RTTOV Users Guides (RTTOV-7 at Met Office Bracknell; RTTOV-9 at Exeter).
  • Lead author Saunders et al. 2018, “An update on the RTTOV fast radiative transfer model (currently at version 12)”, Geoscientific Model Development 11:2717 (doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2717-2018). Co-authors: Hocking, Turner, Rayer, Rundle, Brunel, Vidot, Roquet, Matricardi, Geer, Bormann, Lupu.
  • FLAG: birth date not found. Met Office people page returned 404 — need alternate.

Sean Healy

  • ECMWF scientist; leading figure in GPS/GNSS radio-occultation assimilation at ECMWF.
  • Healy 2001: “Radio occultation bending angle and impact parameter errors caused by horizontal gradients in the troposphere: a simulation study”.
  • Healy, Eyre, Hamrud & Thépaut 2007: “Assimilating GPS radio occultation measurements with two-dimensional bending angle observation operators” — established the operational bending-angle operator approach.
  • Showed CHAMP RO measurements contain useful T information in upper-trop/lower-strat. Led ECMWF’s start of COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 assimilation (25 March 2020).
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living).

Christian Rocken

  • UCAR scientist; central to GPS/MET and COSMIC radio-occultation data processing at the COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC).
  • Rocken et al. 1997: statistical validation of GPS/MET — compared 1200+ soundings of troposphere/stratosphere to correlative datasets (JGR). Foundational RO validation paper.
  • US-side project scientist for COSMIC-2 partnership at UCAR.
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living; German name, likely German-born — NOT VERIFIED).

Richard (Rick) Anthes

  • Born March 9, 1944. BS, MS, PhD in meteorology, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
  • 1971: joined Pennsylvania State University (full professor 1978). 1981: director of NCAR’s Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction Division. 1986: director of NCAR. 1988-Jan 2012: President of UCAR (longest-serving to that date).
  • 1993: became interested in radio occultation; key player in proof-of-concept GPS/MET experiment and in COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) — joint Taiwan/US, six satellites launched 15 April 2006.
  • Sources: Wikipedia; UCAR archives (b.1944); NCAR distinguished-scholar CV (has full birthdate/place).

Carla Cardinali

  • ECMWF scientist; developed and led adjoint-based Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (FSOI) at ECMWF.
  • Cardinali, C., 2009: “Monitoring the observation impact on the short-range forecast,” QJRMS 135:239-250 (doi:10.1002/qj.366). KEY RESULT for the post: largest single contribution to decreasing 24h forecast error is AMSU-A (~25%) — quantified proof AMSU-A is the single most valuable observing system. Analysis over summer 2006 + winter 2007.
  • Adjoint-based FSOI implemented operationally at ECMWF June 2012, run daily since.
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living, Italian).

Rolf Langland

  • US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey, CA.
  • Langland, R. H. & N. L. Baker, 2004: “Estimation of observation impact using the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation adjoint system,” Tellus A 56:189-201. Introduced the adjoint-based FSOI method — computationally cheap, partitions impact by instrument/variable/region/level. Used NOGAPS 24h/30h forecast error, NAVDAS, June & Dec 2002.
  • FLAG: birth date not found.

Nancy Baker

  • Nancy L. Baker, meteorologist (PhD), US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey. Co-author Langland & Baker 2004 (see above); NAVDAS development.
  • FLAG: birth date not found.

Sanghyun Joo

  • Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) scientist; worked at/with the UK Met Office on adjoint-based FSOI.
  • Joo, S., J. Eyre & R. Marriott, 2013: “The Impact of MetOp and Other Satellite Data within the Met Office Global NWP System Using an Adjoint-Based Sensitivity Method,” Monthly Weather Review 141:3331-3342. (Note: co-authored with John Eyre — a useful narrative bridge.) Quantified per-instrument satellite impact in the Met Office global model.
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living, Korean).

D. P. (Dick) Dee

  • ECMWF; “reanalysis pioneer.” Inventor/implementer of VARIATIONAL BIAS CORRECTION (VarBC) for satellite radiances.
  • Joined ECMWF as visiting scientist 2003-04 to develop VarBC; recruited into Sakari Uppala’s ERA-Interim reanalysis team because the reanalysis needed automated bias correction.
  • Dee, D. P., 2004: “Variational bias correction of radiance data in the ECMWF system,” Proc. ECMWF workshop on assimilation of high-spectral-resolution sounders in NWP, Reading, 28 June-1 July 2004. VarBC operational 2006.
  • Dee & Uppala 2009: “Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis,” QJRMS (doi:10.1002/qj.493).
  • Lead author of the landmark Dee et al. 2011, “The ERA-Interim reanalysis,” QJRMS (covers 1979-2019). Bowed out 2019 as ERA5 replaced ERA-Interim.
  • (Note: Auligné, McNally & Dee 2007 is the other canonical VarBC paper — adaptive bias correction for satellite data.)
  • FLAG: birth date not found (living). Dutch/American name.

Cross-link / framing notes for the writer

  • FRAME paper (SH catches up): Simmons & Hollingsworth 2002 (QJRMS) — same verification paper as Post 47; anchors the two-hemisphere skill-convergence chart.
  • Already-introduced people to cross-link: Jean-Noel Thepaut + Anthony Hollingsworth (Post 47), Andrew Lorenc (Post 44), Eugenia Kalnay (Post 46).
  • Key quantified payoff for the ENGINE argument: Cardinali 2009 — AMSU-A ~25% of forecast-error reduction (single most valuable observing system). Langland & Baker 2004 introduced the adjoint FSOI method NRL used to reach the same conclusion.
  • RTTOV as the enabling “software machine”: originated at ECMWF early 1990s (Eyre’s fast-RT work), Saunders took scientific lead (ECMWF Satellite Section head 1995-99), now NWP SAF; Saunders et al. 2018 GMD documents version history.
  • Direct-radiance turn chronology: Eyre 1989 (1D-Var) -> Andersson et al. 1994 (cloud-cleared radiances in variational) -> ECMWF 3D-Var 1996 -> 4D-Var 1997 -> VarBC (Dee 2004, operational 2006).

Verification status summary

  • WELL VERIFIED dates/places: Richard Anthes (b. 9 March 1944, U. Wisconsin-Madison; UCAR president 1988-2012).
  • CAREER-VERIFIED but no birth date: Eyre, Andersson, McNally, Saunders (ECMWF Sat Section head 1995-99), Healy, Rocken, Cardinali, Langland, Baker, Dee (ECMWF visiting scientist 2003-04, VarBC), Joo, Kelly, Pailleux.
  • UNVERIFIED / FLAG: Lawrence McMillin birth & death dates (two candidate obituaries, neither confirmed as the NOAA scientist). Rocken nationality/birth. Kelly and Pailleux birth details.

Sources

Fetched or surfaced in search (only URLs actually seen listed):

  • ECMWF “Fifty years of data assimilation at ECMWF”: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/81650-fifty-years-of-data-assimilation-at-ecmwf.pdf (fetched + pdftotext; confirms Eyre 1989, Andersson et al. 1991 & 1994, Thépaut et al. 1996, 3D-Var 1996, 4D-Var 1997, author list incl. Kelly, Pailleux, McNally, Thépaut)
  • Eyre 2022 “Assimilation of satellite data in NWP. Part II: Recent years,” QJRMS: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.4228 (history source; not full-text fetched)
  • NOAA Tech Report NESS 65, McMillin, VTPR satellite infrared soundings: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/noaa-tr-ness65-McMillin-VTPR.pdf
  • Tony McNally ECMWF staff profile (surfaced; page itself 401 for fetch): https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/staff-profiles/tony-mcnally
  • McNally bias estimation memo (2005): https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2005/15832-bias-estimation-and-correction-satellite-data-assimilation.pdf
  • Erik Andersson ECMWF staff profile (401 on fetch): https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/staff-profiles/erik-andersson
  • Roger Saunders et al. 2018, RTTOV v12, GMD 11:2717: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/2717/2018/gmd-11-2717-2018-relations.html (doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2717-2018)
  • Roger Saunders Met Office people page (404 on fetch): https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/roger-saunders
  • Richard Anthes Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_A._Anthes
  • Richard Anthes UCAR archives (b.1944): https://aspace.archives.ucar.edu/agents/people/113
  • Richard Anthes NCAR distinguished-scholar CV (PDF, full birthdate/place): https://ncar.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/documents/related-links/2018-02/anthes-distinguished-scholar-cv.pdf
  • Sean Healy ECMWF assimilation-of-GPS-RO memo: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2008/9809-assimilation-gps-radio-occultation-measurements-ecmwf.pdf
  • Christian Rocken / GPS-MET validation (Rocken et al. 1997) context, UCAR COSMIC: https://www.cosmic.ucar.edu/what-we-do/gnss-radio-occultation
  • Cardinali 2009, QJRMS 135:239-250, doi:10.1002/qj.366: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.366 (AMSU-A ~25%)
  • Langland & Baker 2004, Tellus A 56:189-201 (ResearchGate record): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312359703_Estimation_of_observation_impact_using_the_NRL_atmospheric_variational_data_assimilation_adjoint_system
  • Rolf Langland NRL FSOI seminar (NOAA STAR): https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data/star_docs/seminardocs/2006/LANGLAND_20Sep2006.pdf
  • Nancy Baker NRL research profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nancy-Baker-3
  • Dick Dee “reanalysis pioneer bows out” ECMWF news: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/reanalysis-pioneer-dick-dee-bows-out-era5-replaces-era-interim
  • Dee 2004 VarBC of radiance data (ECMWF): https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2004/8930-variational-bias-correction-radiance-data-ecmwf-system.pdf
  • Dee & Uppala 2009 VarBC in ERA-Interim, QJRMS doi:10.1002/qj.493: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.493/abstract
  • Sanghyun Joo et al. 2013, Mon. Wea. Rev. 141:3331-3342 (MetOp adjoint impact): surfaced via Korea Science / AMS search (koreascience.or.kr article record)
  • Lawrence J. McMillin obituary (WRONG person, do not use): https://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/obituaries/lawrence-mcmillin

STATUS: COMPLETE (McMillin birth/death dates unresolved — flagged).