Draft Corrections: Post 35 — A Billion Butterflies (Jagadish Shukla)
Draft Corrections: Post 35 — A Billion Butterflies (Jagadish Shukla)
Status: COMPLETE
Errors found and corrections proposed
1. IMO Prize laureate paragraph — MAJOR ERRORS
Current text (post §”The Rossby Medal and the IMO Prize”):
“The list of previous IMO laureates includes Carl-Gustaf Rossby (1956), Sverre Petterssen (1962), Tor Bergeron (1966), Reginald Sutcliffe (1971), Bert Bolin (1981), Lennart Bengtsson (1990), Tim Palmer (2007 – shared the year with Shukla), Akio Arakawa (2008), Syukuro Manabe (2009), and Jule Charney (posthumously, 1980).”
Per the official WMO IMO Prize laureate list and Wikipedia:
- Rossby received the IMO Prize in 1957 (not 1956). The 1956 award (the first) was to Sir Nelson K. Johnson.
- Reginald Sutcliffe received the IMO Prize in 1963, not 1971.
- Lennart Bengtsson received the IMO Prize in 2006, not 1990.
- Tim Palmer received the IMO Prize in 2023, not 2007, and did NOT share with Shukla. Shukla received it in 2007 alone (the 52nd IMO Prize).
- Jule Charney received the IMO Prize in 1971, during his lifetime (Charney died June 1981). The “posthumously 1980” attribution in the post is wrong on two counts.
- Akio Arakawa and Syukuro Manabe are not confirmed as IMO Prize laureates in the sources searched. Their respective AMS honours (Rossby Medal, etc.) are real but the IMO Prize years (2008, 2009) given in the post are not verified.
Proposed correction: Rewrite the paragraph using only verified laureates, e.g.:
“Shukla’s IMO Prize made him the 52nd laureate of the WMO’s highest honour, joining (among others) Carl-Gustaf Rossby (1957), Tor Bergeron (1966), Jule Charney (1971), Bert Bolin (1981), Lennart Bengtsson (2006), and Tim Palmer (2023). The IMO Prize is given annually since 1956 for outstanding contributions to international meteorology.”
2. RICO-20 letter date — WRONG
Current text (§ “The 2015 controversy”):
“…was made public on 17 September 2015…”
Per Inside Climate News and multiple sources:
The letter was sent on 1 September 2015 to President Obama, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, and White House science advisor John Holdren.
Proposed correction:
“…was sent on 1 September 2015 to President Obama, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, and White House science advisor John Holdren, and became public knowledge shortly after via the IGES website…”
3. Charney 1969 paper — wrong journal and topic in body text
Current text (§ “MIT, 1970-1976”):
“The MIT-era papers that emerged from this thread of work include Charney 1969’s Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society paper on the Hadley circulation…”
Per AMS:
Charney 1969 is “A Further Note on Large-Scale Motions in the Tropics”, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 26(1):182-185 — a planetary-Rossby-wave / weak-westerly-waveguide note, NOT a Quarterly Journal Hadley-circulation paper. The footnote [^6] cites it correctly as JAS, but the body text mislabels the journal and topic.
Proposed correction:
“The MIT-era papers that emerged from this thread of work include Charney 1969’s Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences note “A Further Note on Large-Scale Motions in the Tropics,” Charney 1975’s “Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel” Quarterly Journal paper…”
4. Shukla 1975 paper misattributed to GFDL post-doc work
Current text (§ “GFDL Princeton, 1976-1979”):
“The GFDL work produced two consequential papers. Shukla 1975’s Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences paper…”
Issue: Shukla 1975 was published in 1975, BEFORE his GFDL post-doctoral fellowship began in 1976. The paper used the GFDL atmospheric model but the work itself was done during Shukla’s MIT doctoral years. Title: “Effect of Arabian Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly on Indian Summer Monsoon: A Numerical Experiment with the GFDL Model.”
Proposed correction:
“The GFDL period was the consolidation of a research line Shukla had begun at MIT. His Shukla 1975 Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences paper “Effect of Arabian sea-surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: A numerical experiment with the GFDL model” – the first quantitative GCM study of how a specific oceanic boundary condition could be tied to a specific atmospheric outcome – had been the formative paper of his MIT doctoral years; he extended its programme at GFDL on the TI ASC. The 1976-1979 GFDL period also produced his collaboration with Yale Mintz at UCLA that culminated in Shukla and Mintz 1982’s Science paper…”
5. Education dates inconsistent with sources
Current text:
“He took his Bachelor of Science in Geology and Geophysics in 1962-1965, and his Master of Science in 1965-1967.”
Per Wikipedia and GMU Support Science feature:
Shukla earned his BSc (honors) at BHU at age 18 (i.e., 1962), and his MSc in Geophysics from BHU in 1964, then began doctoral work that resulted in the BHU PhD in 1971. The post’s “BSc 1962-1965, MSc 1965-1967” framing is inconsistent with sources that say MSc 1964.
Proposed correction:
“He took his Bachelor of Science in Physics, Mathematics, and Geology at BHU at age eighteen, completing it in 1962, and his Master of Science in Geophysics in 1964. He then began doctoral work at BHU under senior Indian meteorologists, and was awarded the BHU PhD in 1971 as an external candidate.”
(Also update the figure caption to “BSc completed 1962, MSc 1964, doctoral candidate 1965-1971” or similar.)
6. Beowulf-1 date — “summer 1994” not supported
Current text:
“…the Beowulf-cluster pattern that Donald Becker and Thomas Sterling had pioneered in summer 1994…”
Per beowulf.org:
Sterling and Becker began sketching the design in late 1993; the project started at CESDIS in early 1994. “Summer 1994” is not corroborated by primary sources.
Proposed correction:
“…the Beowulf-cluster pattern that Donald Becker and Thomas Sterling had pioneered in early 1994…”
7. IGES dissolution timing — minor
Current text:
“In 2014-2015 IGES was dissolved as a separate corporation…”
Per IGES institutional history (via Wikipedia search summary):
The decision to dissolve IGES was made in 2013; COLA staff transitioned to GMU employment in 2015; all IGES research projects completed in July 2015.
Proposed correction:
“In 2013 IGES took the decision to dissolve as a separate corporation; all IGES research projects were completed by July 2015 and the COLA staff transitioned to GMU faculty positions during 2015.”
8. Optional addition — Padma Shri 2012, AGU Fellow 2008, Nobel Peace Prize 2007 share
The post lists Rossby (2005) and IMO (2007) but omits:
- Padma Shri (Government of India civilian honour) 2012
- AGU Fellow 2008
- Walker Gold Medal of the Indian Meteorological Society 2001
- Shared 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as lead author of IPCC AR4 (per American Kahani)
These are optional additions; the post is not wrong to omit them, but if completeness is desired, especially the Padma Shri (a major Indian honour) and the AR4 lead authorship, they should be mentioned.
9. TI ASC #4 four-pipe — UNVERIFIED but not falsified
Current text:
“…the Texas Instruments Advanced Scientific Computer #4 – the only four-pipe ASC ever built, installed at GFDL in 1972…”
The claim that GFDL had ASC #4 and that it was the only four-pipe is consistent with what is known about the ASC family (only seven installed), but Wikipedia’s TI ASC article does not specifically corroborate the GFDL pipe count or serial number. The claim should be flagged as relying on a secondary source (Post 31’s GFDL machine timeline).
Status: Not corrected here; carry over from Post 31 research; flag for primary-source verification later.
Verified items (no change needed)
- Born 1944 Mirdha village, Ballia district, Uttar Pradesh — CORRECT (post correctly does not say Kerala)
- No MacArthur Fellowship — CORRECT (post correctly does not claim it)
- BHU BSc/MSc/PhD — CORRECT institution
- ScD MIT 1976 under Charney — CORRECT
- Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences 1979-1984 — CORRECT institution
- Shukla 1981 J. Atmos. Sci. 38(12):2547-2572 — CORRECT (volume, issue, pages, journal, date)
- 1981 paper used GLAS GCM (not GFDL) — CORRECT (this is the most important factual claim in the post)
- Nine 60-day integrations methodology — CORRECT
- 30-day predictability finding — CORRECT
- NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal 1982 — CORRECT
- COLA founded at Maryland 1984 — CORRECT
- IGES incorporated January 1993 — CORRECT
- Gandhi College Mirdha 1999 — CORRECT
- Rossby Medal 2005 — CORRECT
- IMO Prize 2007 — CORRECT
- MONEX 1979 Bay of Bengal phase Calcutta July 1979 — CORRECT
- Memoir St Martin’s Press 2025 — CORRECT
- Convex C220 ~50 MFLOPS — CORRECT
- Convex Computer Corporation founded 1982 in Richardson Texas — CORRECT
- Charney 1975 Sahel QJRMS 101:193-202 — CORRECT
- Shukla and Mintz 1982 Science 215:1498-1501 — CORRECT
- Shukla 1998 Science 282(5389):728-731 — CORRECT
- NSF OIG cleared Shukla November 2017 — CORRECT
- 1981 J. Atmos. Sci. paper page 2569 quote — assumed correct, not independently verified
Priority recommendations
Must fix (factual errors):
- IMO laureate paragraph (5+ wrong dates)
- RICO-20 letter date (1 Sept, not 17 Sept)
- Charney 1969 journal/title in body text
- Shukla 1975 paper attribution (MIT-era, not GFDL post-doc)
Should fix (date precision):
- Education dates (MSc 1964)
- Beowulf date (early 1994)
- IGES dissolution (decision 2013, completion 2015)
Optional:
- Add Padma Shri 2012, AGU Fellow 2008, possibly Nobel Peace Prize 2007 share
- Flag TI ASC #4 four-pipe claim for primary-source verification